GE Put Play

Looking at buying a put if GE stock price hits 14.42. Earnings are already out and the stock dropped afterwards. Nice doji today but I still placed the buy order .05 below today's low. I was also looking at SBUX but earnings is in a couple days and don't want to risk an upside surprise. Back to GE though, you can see the MACD is turning down, the death cross occurred last week or so where the 50 dma(blue) crossed down over the 200 dma(green) and its still closing below the 20 dma(red). My target here is the sub $14 range on GE. The low a couple weeks ago was 13.75 so if we break $14 this week then I'll tighten my stop, maybe trailstop it. If the 13.75 hits again it would give us about a 50% profit. The current 15 strike put is about $70 and we're looking to make $35 or so quickly for each contract.
I'll try and update tomorrow aftrnoon.
Later.
Trader Dad!

MSFT Follow Up

Our Put Buy entry of 24.75 was never hit today so our day order was cancelled. MSFT opened slightly higher and closed right around the mid-point of yesterday's selloff. It also closed above the 50 dma(blue line). You'll also notice that the earnings report is this Thursday. This is enough info to stay away from this trade and look for a less risky entry. Chances are earnings won't be great after IBM and Texas Instruments reported but why take the chance. Let's find something else.
Later.
Trader Dad!

Bearish on Microsoft (MSFT)

So following the same lines as my QQQQ trade I've been posting, I'm seeing the same pattern with many individual stocks. MSFT is one of them. As you can see, it took a dump on Friday with the rest of the market and the previous low a couple weeks ago broke below $23. Since its currently at $24.89, we can probably expect about 2 point drop over the next week or so. So I've got a Put Buy at 24.75 for tomorrow morning. This is .13 below Friday's low. If you wanted a safer entry you could set your entry to 24.60 which is about the 20 day moving average (red line). A couple other things going for us on this trade is the fact that the MACD was overbought and has turned and the 20(red), 50(blue), and 200(green) day moving averages have fanned out slowest to fastest which is a good thing for bear trades. So if we enter at 24.75, the 25 strike would be about $117 with a Delta of $50. So if MSFT dropped 2 points we'd make close to $100 or almost 100%. Not bad, espescially if you've switched to a MAC. Later.
Trader Dad!

QQQQ Trade: 41% in 1 Day!

So you can see that our Put buy was triggered yesterday at 45.19. This is .05 below the low of the day before. The trigger bought the 1st In The Money Put for about $160 yesterday. Today that Put is worth about $226. That's a $66 profit or 41% profit in 1 day. I'm holding this over the weekend because the last high was a lower high and I think we're headed to at least the $43 range. Depending on how it looks next week I may trailstop it to capture some gains. Here's the profit had you done the exact style trade for the other major ETFs this week. DIA:31% profit, SPY:25% profit, SSO:29% profit.

QQQQ Swing Trade Update

So QQQQ and the other major ETFs like SPY, SSO, and DIA were all up today. Since I'm still bearish, I'm updating my put buying price on each. On QQQQ, I've got a put buy order for tomorrow .05 below today's low. If the QQQQ drops to 44.75 tomorrow, my order should be triggered. I'll keep updating this each day the QQQQ or the other ETFs close higher. QQQQ is on a 6 day win streak. Let's see how it falls...
Later.
Trader Dad!

Swing Trade Idea: Entry to Short QQQQ

You can see the nice downtrend from JUN21 to JUL2. You can also see how the Awesome Oscilator started green and turned red during that time. Key point here is the AO isn't a leading indicator. DUH! So how do we use it? So if you look at JUL6, you'll see the price closed slightly higher than JUL2 yet the AO gave us another longer red bar. This is a bearish divergence. So at the close of JUL6, we're waiting for bull reversal. Boom ,next day, long white candle, long green AO bar. So how long will this bullish reversal last? Doesn't matter, we're going to try and catch it when it turns. So the night of JUL7, we place a put buy order if the price drops .05 below the low of the setup candle. In this case, 42.65. Now JUL8 happens, price rises, we don't get triggered. Same thing, the night of JUL8 we place a put buy order .05 below the low of JUN8's candle and so on. So today QQQQ closed at 44.75, with a low of 44.46, So I've got a put buy order on a price drop to 44.41.
Then I wait until tomorrow.
Later.
Trader Dad!

Awesome Oscilator

So I've been messing around with the Awesome Oscilator. and guess what, it seems kind of, well, Awesome. Over the weekend, I backtested the SSO ETF that tracks the S&P500 and found it pretty useful. Since not one indicator always gives you accurate entry/exit points, I've added a few others that should help other night traders with trading options. Once I do some more backtesting, I'll post some examples with some additional rules. In the meantime my current positions are Short: ERTS, XRT, BP
Later.